Every 10 years, congressional maps that decide who holds power in Congress are redrawn. This year, however, talk of an early redistricting threatens to shift that balance.
After a heavily publicized visit to Indiana earlier this month by Vice President JD Vance, who discussed redistricting with Indiana Gov. Mike Braun, Indiana Republicans traveled this week to Washington, D.C., presumably to continue those talks.
For Gary, a cornerstone city in Indiana’s 1st Congressional District, those lines carry real weight. Lake County’s Democratic base has long set this district apart from the rest of Republican-dominated Indiana. The decisions made in Indianapolis could change how much Gary’s communities are heard in Washington and whether their votes carry the same weight they always have.
But what does it mean for Gary?
What are districts, and why are they redistricted?
The United States is divided into 435 congressional districts. Each state has a set number of districts based on the state’s population. Every two years, voters in each district elect one representative to the U.S. House.
Every 10 years, after the census, states redraw district lines to reflect population changes.
As districts lose or gain population, the borders that separate districts can change to ensure roughly the same amount of residents are in each district. Based on the 2020 census, the target number is just over 750,000.
While the number of residents per district remains somewhat standard, the borders of a district can change dramatically.
Who controls the process of redistricting?
The Constitution gives state legislatures the power to draw congressional maps. In most states, the party in control of the legislature has the advantage when redrawing the lines. That often means the ruling party can design maps that favor its chances in future elections.
Over the past 25 years, more states have moved toward independent commissions. Today, 39 legislatures still hold primary control, while 11 states use commissions in some form.
In states with supermajorities — like Republican-led Indiana or Democrat-led Illinois — the majority party is almost always assured control.
The last census was in 2020. Why is redistricting a topic before the next census in 2030?
An executive order, of sorts. Earlier this month, President Donald Trump requested that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott call a special session to redraw their maps five years early in hopes of netting Republicans five additional seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, which the president believes he is entitled to.
Republicans control the Texas legislature, so Texas House Democrats fled the state in protest of the redrawing. Indiana Democrats later joined them in Chicago to draw national attention to the issue.
The timing of the request has also caused alarms among Democrats, who want to continue the near 20-year trend in Congress that sees the minority party rise to majority at midterms.
Why is Indiana in the middle of the redistricting debate?
Think of it as a domino effect. The goal is to control the majority of the 435 seats in Congress. After Texas Republicans moved to change their maps, California Gov. Gavin Newsom called a special redistricting session to offset any GOP gains.
Efforts are now underway to pressure other Republican legislatures to act as Democratic controlled states prepare to respond. Vance’s visit to Indiana, followed by Indiana Republicans’ trip to the White House this week, may signal a shift ahead for the state.
Why does it matter to me as a Gary resident?
Gary is the largest city in Lake County, home to one of only two Democratic-held districts among Indiana’s nine. It also has the state’s second-largest Black population, behind only Indianapolis.
Last year, Capital B Gary tracked a trend of rising Republican voting numbers in Lake County dating back to the 2016 election. Our analysis showed a swell of Republican votes in Lake County to the south of U.S. 30.
In fact, in the most recent congressional race, Rep. Frank Mrvan held onto his seat largely thanks to Lake County support. He narrowly won LaPorte County, while his Republican opponent carried Porter County.
Should Republicans redraw the 1st Congressional District map — whether extending the district south of Lake County or further east into LaPorte County — it could flip a long-standing Democratic seat to Republicans.
How has redistricting changed Indiana’s state legislature and representation in Congress?
The impact has been dramatic.
After the 2000 census, the Indiana House was evenly split. That was also the last time the maps were drawn by a commission. Every map since has been drawn by the legislature.
Since then, Republicans have gone from a six-seat deficit to a 42-seat advantage in the Indiana House.
In Congress, the change has been just as striking. After the 2008 election, Indiana’s nine U.S. House seats were split 5–4 in favor of Democrats. But maps redrawn after the 2010 census gave Republicans a 7–2 advantage, a margin that has proved almost impossible for Democrats to overcome.
For example, in 2010, Republicans held 77% of the seats despite winning just over 50% of the vote. In the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats won 44% of the popular vote but held only 22% of the seats.
If the 1st District is redrawn, Republicans could gain an 8-to-1 advantage, controlling nearly 90% of Indiana’s House delegation.
Why does it matter to the country?
Simply put, control of Congress is on the line. The current split is close: Republicans hold a narrow five-seat edge, 220 to 215, with four vacancies.
With Texas’ five-seat pickup potentially being offset by redistricting by the Democrat controlled California state legislature, involvement from other states like Indiana would be key in determining the outcome.